Sylvera, the leading provider of carbon market data and ratings, today released its Q3 2026 Carbon Market Data Snapshot, revealing a voluntary carbon market where stable retirement volumes meet rising prices, and the underlying quality profile of retired credits continues to shift.
Key takeaways:
- Headline numbers: Carbon credit retirements reached 30.6 million in Q3 2026, down 9% year-on-year, but total retirement market value grew to $211.8 million (from $190.6 million), as the average price paid per credit climbed to $6.92, up from $5.66 a year earlier.
- Project types: Renewable energy credits posted their strongest quarter since Q2 2023, accounting for 41% of all retirements. With renewable energy projects carrying no Sylvera rating above C, this led a market-wide dip in retirement quality, with B/C/D-rated credits making up 66.1% of all retirements.
- Offtakes: The forward carbon removal offtake market remains well below last year’s levels, driven almost entirely by Microsoft’s pullback. But excluding Microsoft, offtake volume from the rest of the market nearly trebled year-on-year, with new entrants including Woodside and Alphabet (Google) signalling early signs of a more diversified buyer base.
Volume steady, value up
Carbon credit retirements reached 30.6 million in Q3 2026, down 9% from 33.7 million a year earlier, though year-to-date volume (130.3 million) remains marginally ahead of the same point in 2025. Despite the volume decline, total retirement market value grew to $211.8 million in Q3, up from $190.6 million, as the average price paid per credit retired rose to $6.92 – up from $5.66 in Q3 2025. Investment-grade (≥BBB) credits continued to command a disproportionate share of that value, making up just 18% of rated retirement volume but 42% of rated market value.
Renewables drive record share, but at a quality cost
Renewable energy credits ― largely grid-connected wind, hydro and solar projects ― made up 41% of all retirements in Q3 2026, their highest share in over three years. Because these projects are typically considered to have weak additionality (they likely would have proceeded without carbon finance), Sylvera’s ratings methodology caps them at C-grade or below. As a result, renewables alone accounted for 76% of all B/C/D-rated retirement volume this quarter, directly driving the market’s overall decline in average retirement quality.
Elsewhere, REDD+ retirements normalized to 18% of the market, down from a Q2 spike of 38% that was driven by a single large jurisdictional REDD+ retirement in Guyana. Agriculture-related credits were the standout growth story, more than tripling their retirement share quarter-on-quarter.
Offtake market shows early signs of diversifying beyond Microsoft
The forward carbon removal offtake market ― where buyers commit today to credits delivered in future years ― remains in a steep year-on-year decline, down 53% to 32.7 million tonnes announced in the year to date. The drop is overwhelmingly attributable to Microsoft, which accounted for 89% of all announced offtake volume in the same period last year, and has since pulled back purchases by 85%.
However, excluding Microsoft, the picture looks considerably healthier: non-Microsoft offtake volume has nearly trebled year-on-year, from 8 million to 23 million tonnes. Woodside has emerged as the second-largest offtaker of 2026 to date, while Alphabet (Google) has moved into third place following new offtake agreements with Terradot and Mitti Labs covering enhanced weathering and rice emission reduction credits ― project types not previously represented among the market’s largest buyers.
“This quarter’s data shows a market that’s still finding its footing after Microsoft’s retreat, but the early signs of diversification – new buyers, new project types and particularly off the back of recent Google announcements – are very encouraging. At the same time, renewables’ growing dominance of retirements is a reminder that volume recovery and quality improvement don’t always move in the same direction.” Allister Furey, CEO, Sylvera.